Data centers are to face dramatic disruption in the next two years, according to a report by analyst Gartner.

The research company predicts that increasing intense competition, the rising profile of big cloud providers, nationalism and economic conflict will create sufficient friction to create a series of quakes in the data center industry. It predicts that risks and opportunities will abound in the next three to four years.

The foundations of the data center industry will be affected by four market force shocks, according to Gartner’s VP distinguished analyst Joe Skorupa. These undercurrents are already in play, according to Skorupa, but the ground will begin to move in early 2016. Radical action by just one significant player could bring market disruption forward dramatically, he predicted, as this will incite the critical change in ‘vendor behaviors’ that will catalyse market disruption.

The response to these four factors will create three types of disruptive vendor behavior by data center operators, according to Skorupa’s analysis. Some will aggressively defend their market share, revenue, profit margins and large installed base. A second group – the ‘Evolutionary Disrupters’ will strike a balance between disrupting the existing business model of protectors, while shielding their own business from other disrupters. The third group, however, the Revolutionary Disrupters, will challenge the status quo, creating casualties out of the less nimble and more complexly structured data centers businesses.

The disruptive technologies cited in the Gartner report include software-defined networking (SDN) and software-defined storage, network function virtualization, extreme low-energy processors and webscale-integrated infrastructure.

“Underneath this calm surface, increasing market pressures are driving a change in vendor behaviours, which, along with the four disruptive factors, make the market ripe for a period of major disruption,” said Skorupa.